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What xG Can and Cannot Tell You

Expected goals is everywhere now. Most people are using it wrong. A practical guide to reading the number properly.

Sample analysis: xG assigns a probability to each shot based on factors known before the shot is taken.

What the Model Actually Measures

Sample analysis: PSxG incorporates placement and speed, separating shot quality from finishing quality.

Post-Shot xG: The Honest Metric

Sample analysis: over a handful of games, xG noise dominates signal. Over a season, it converges.

The Sample Size Trap

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agilpiriyev

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agilpiriyev

Football analyst at Football Deep Dive, covering tactics, data, and the stories behind the game.

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